The Iran-Israel, rivalry is one of the longest-standing and most complicated rivalries in the Middle East. Although the two states have never fought a formal war, they have a long history of animosity, proxy wars, cyber wars, and ideological opposition – this report provides a neutral and factual profile of the background, events, regional context, and implications for international security.
1.Historical background
The Iran-Israel rivalry developed after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when Iran transitioned from being a Western aligned monarchy, ruled by the Shah, to becoming an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini. Before their revolutionary shift, Iran (under the Shah) was an ally of Israel; and since the revolution, Iran’s anti-Zionist rhetoric began to target Israel.
The new Iranian regime recognized Israel as an illegitimate state, and began to support groups that fought against Israeli policies, particularly Hezbollah based in Lebanon and Hamas operating in the Palestinian territories.
2.Key Friction Points
Nuclear Program: Israel has long believed that Iran’s interest in developing a nuclear initiative presents an existential threat to the country. Iran is adamant in its insistence that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but Israel, the U.S., and other allies regard Iran’s actions as an attempt to build its nuclear weapons program.
Proxy Warfare:
Iran backs militant organizations throughout the region – Hezbollah, Hamas, and, to a lesser extent, Islamic Jihad – who threaten Israel. In turn, Israel has conducted airstrikes in Syria and elsewhere to attack Iranian military infrastructure and arms transfers.
Cyber Warfare:
The two countries have engaged each other in cyber operations. One of the more famous incidents was the Stuxnet virus that was reported to have disrupted Iran’s nuclear program in 2010 and many believe it was a joint U.S.-Israeli operation.
Assassinations and Attacks: The assassination of several Iranian nuclear scientists (since attributed to Israel) and attacks on Israeli-affiliated vessels and interests have resulted in a dangerous tit-for-tat dynamic.
April 2024 Escalation: In what was one of the most severe escalations to date, Iran launched a missile and drone attack against Israel, reportedly in retaliation for a prior strike on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Israel intercepted many of the missiles and drones with its missile defense systems, including Iron Dome and Arrow-3. This was the first direct confrontation of the two states heightening fears of the possibility of a larger regional war.
3.Regional and International Reactions
United States: As Israel’s closest ally the U.S. has consistently supported Israeli security issues while attempting to dissuade escalation. Yet, it continues to lead international efforts to dissuade Iran from attaining nuclear weapons
Arab States:
While there are a few exceptions, including Lebanon, Ethiopia and Yemen are likely the only two Arab states lacking any support for Iran. Many Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, over the years have closely aligned themselves with Israel’s worldview on regional matters and share concerns over Iran’s ambitions in the region. The Abraham Accords in 2020 signaled a new world order for Arab-Israeli relations as some Arab states normalized relations with Israel, and the normalization was in part influenced by regional concerns over Iran.
European Union and UN:
While both institutions have consistently called for calm, restraint, dialogue, and respect for international law, they acknowledge escalation in nuclear proliferation and military assistance as relevant to regional and global security.
4.Effect on Regional Stability
The Iran-Israel conflict will continue to have an impact on nearly every security issue in the Middle East. As we have seen, the Iran-Israel rivalry affects Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza and complicates energy markets globally, migration issues, and the impact of these events on international diplomacy.
A war in the region, particularly between Iran and Israel, would have dire consequences not only for Iran and Israel, but the region as a whole. It has the potential to involve global powers that would invite, unexpected consequences not just regionally, but globally in response to economic shock waves or other contingencies.
5.Directions for the Future
While it seems that neither side has an appetite for full-scale war, the potential for miscalculation or escalation remains as high as ever. Diplomatic negotiations, including those over the nuclear issue (such as the JCPOA), have broken down internally and stalled at every turn. There is a glimmer of hope for de-escalation in the form of regional dialogues, back-channel diplomacy, and international mediation.
Conclusion
The Iran-Israel context encapsulates the many broader struggles that are shaping the Middle East today— including ideology (religious), power, security, and global interests. As it relates to better understanding its dynamics, and the implications for the future, it is important for policymakers, analysts, and the public, to analyze other potential outcomes as they emerge.
